OUR THESIS — WHAT WE BELIEVE ABOUT AI-NATIVE COMPANY BUILDING

Bonfire invests
where Ai-native products get stronger with use.

AI-native isn't a feature. It's a different kind of company. The best AI-native software learns from the work, so every customer makes it smarter, more useful, and harder to replace. That compounding is the whole thesis.

The compounding loop

The best companies learn
from the work

AI-native software can learn from the work, but the loop isn't automatic. The best teams design for it from day one. They capture every task, correction, and decision, then feed it back, so the product understands the work (and each customer's way of doing it) a little better every week.

Compounding loop showing usage, data, product intelligence, and enduring value

WHAT WE BELIEVE

Five convictions that guide every check.

01

AI doesn’t just improve software, it grows the market.

The biggest opportunities aren’t better software. They’re work software could never touch before — labor, services, and operations that lived in headcount budgets, not IT budgets. When an AI company does the job a team of people used to do, the market it sells into stops being the software line item and becomes the payroll line item. That’s a different-sized prize.

02

Winner-take-all is accelerating.

In AI markets the leader pulls away fast, and the gap compounds — because the leader’s product is learning from more usage than anyone else’s. Second place isn’t a smaller version of first; it’s a measurably worse product that falls further behind every quarter. Picking the right company early is the whole job, and it matters more than it did in SaaS.

Where we invest

Six places where AI creates structural, compounding advantage.

We don't index on industry, we index on the shape of the advantage. Some of what we back is built deep for one industry; some is horizontal infrastructure used across many. What stays constant is that the advantage compounds. Here's where we look:

Vertical AI Software

AI built for a specific industry, with deep workflow expertise that makes it increasingly hard to replace.

You’re a fit if:

You’re solving complex workflows for a specific industry you understand deeply.

Read the full Vertical AI thesis

Al + Proprietary Data

Companies that build defensible advantages from proprietary data earned through operating in their market. Companies that build defensible advantages from proprietary data earned through operating in their market.

You’re a fit if:

Your data advantage is structural-and difficult for a well-funded competitor to recreate.

Read the full Proprietary Data thesis

Services-to-Software

Al-native businesses that turn labor-heavy services into scalable, higher-margin software-driven operations. Al-native businesses that turn labor-heavy services intoscalable, higher-margin software-driven operations.

You’re a fit if:

Al lets you deliver a traditionally labor-heavy service faster, cheaper, and more profitably.

Read the full Services-to-Software thesis

Fintech Infrastructure

Critical financial infrastructure built for Al-native businesses, where accuracy, compliance, and trust are non-negotiable. Critical financial infrastructure built for Al-native businesses. where accuracy, compliance, and trust are non-negotiable.

You’re a fit if:

You operate where accuracy, trust, and compliance are non-negotiable.

Read the full Fintech Infrastructure thesis

Agent-Native Infrastructure

The foundational tools agents rely on for identity, payments, orchestration, trust, and observability. The foundational tools agents rely on for identity, payments, orchestration, trust, and observability.

You’re a fit if:

You're becoming a critical layer of the agent stack, with usage that compounds.

Read the full Agent-Native thesis

Structural Reshaping

Al businesses that don't just improve workflows-they fundamentally reshape how an entire market works. Al businesses that don't just improve workflows-they fundamentally reshape how an entire market works.

You’re a fit if:

You're reshaping a market, not simply optimizing an existing workflow.

Read the full Vertical Al thesis

Read the thesis in depth

Tales from
the Bonfire.

Brett’s ongoing writing on AI defensibility, the compounding loop, and where durable value gets built.

Read the full series